61% say Kerry easily beat Bush in debate

Monday, October 4, 2004 at 07:14 JST
NEW YORK — Sixty-one percent of Americans who watched Thursday's presidential debate say Democratic challenger Sen John Kerry of Massachusetts handily beat President George W Bush, according to a Newsweek poll released Saturday.

Only 19% said Bush won the debate and 16% said the two men tied, the poll found. Two more presidential debates are scheduled for next Friday and Oct 13. (Kyodo News)

A Changed Political Landscape, Or an Isolated Peak in the Polls?

"This campaign has plenty of life in it," Lockhart insisted.

By yesterday morning, Newsweek's cover was trumpeting Kerry as "Off the Ropes." The Los Angeles Times front-page headline was "Viewers of First Debate Give Round One to Kerry." "It's a Horse Race Once Again," said the Chicago Tribune.

Why the "dramatic psychological shift," as The Washington Post put it? The answer, in large measure, is polls.

Kerry may have impressed much of the television audience with a strong debate performance Thursday night. But it was a September of sagging poll numbers that caused much of the downbeat coverage, and improved numbers -- starting minutes after the debate ended -- have journalists suddenly proclaiming that the senator might overtake President Bush.

"The polls drive media coverage," says Roger Simon, chief political correspondent of U.S. News & World Report and part of the media invasion in Coral Gables. "It controls the language. All of a sudden there's a front-runner and there's a challenger," and Kerry had been depicted as being "in a hole. He's trying to make up lost ground. He must close the gap. He must come from behind. It's voodoo news."

The alchemy is working, at least fleetingly. Newsweek has Kerry jumping to a 47 percent to 45 percent lead. And the "who won" polls Thursday night were all lopsided, with Kerry deemed the debate victor by 9 points (ABC), 16 (CNN) and 18 (CBS). Never mind that these are blurry snapshots (Al Gore won the first insta-polls in 2000) or that the surveys, financed and trumpeted by news outlets, have been unusually volatile this year.

After Bush bounced to a double-digit lead in some surveys after the Republican convention, reporters and pundits began downgrading Kerry's campaign skills and his team, creating a self-reinforcing reality.

"Polls have been so weird this year we all know not to rely on them," says Liz Marlantes, a Christian Science Monitor reporter. "But it's still really difficult because it's one of the only concrete things you have -- even though they're not concrete. Otherwise you go on what voters tell you, and that tends to be anecdotal." Besides, "the polls could all be wrong."

Conservatives believe many reporters are secretly rooting for Kerry, but there may be a more fundamental motivation, says John Harwood, political editor of the Wall Street Journal. For journalists, he says, "having a rooting interest in having a race may have a positive effect on the coverage of Kerry right now, because people have an incentive to say, 'We still have a contest.' " That, says Juan Williams of National Public Radio, is why political writers cast the debates "as Kerry's last big shot," while a loss would have been interpreted "as the beginning of the end."

Minutes before the debate, Time correspondent Matt Cooper said of the Kerry comeback scenario: "Everyone in this room wants to write it. They're aching to write it. When the polls close up, you'll see more of it."

He was right -- at least until the polls shift again.

A bruised Bush team does damage repair

A little too much repetition in debate?

THE PRESIDENTIAL Debate Commission announced today that the second and third of this year's scheduled debates will no longer be necessary since both President Bush and Senator Kerry have already reached the limit of permitted repetitions. According to official transcripts of last Thursday's debate, the president several times referred to Kerry's "mixed messages" and alleged inconsistencies, but most often repeated the warning that one cannot lead while telling US allies, American troops, and the Iraqi people that this is "the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time," a caution he repeated, by actual count, 4,217 times. Senator Kerry was slightly more reserved, offering his own specific program -- "we can do better" -- 3,812 times.

Buoyed by polls, Kerry comes out swinging

New York — Democratic presidential contender John Kerry stepped up attacks on U.S. President George W. Bush's credibility yesterday, both on Iraq and the U.S. economy, buoyed by fresh allegations that the Republican administration misled Americans about Iraq's weapons programs and by a new poll showing a small but significant increase in support for himself.

The White House immediately dismissed a published report yesterday which claimed that Bush administration officials were warned in 2002 that aluminum rods possessed by the Iraqis were likely for use in artillery systems but still continued to point to them as evidence that Saddam Hussein was building a nuclear arsenal.

The New York Times article appeared as new polls suggest Mr. Kerry has regained momentum since last Thursday's televised presidential debate, which he is widely viewed as having won with his clear and forceful attacks on Mr. Bush's strategy in Iraq.

In polls taken before the debate, Mr. Bush had been leading Mr. Kerry by an average of about eight percentage points. But a post-debate poll for Newsweek found Mr. Kerry has rebounded and is in a statistical dead heat with the President.

The Newsweek poll showed 47 per cent of 1,013 registered voters favouring the Democrat to 45 per cent supporting Mr. Bush. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garnered two per cent.

The Los Angeles Times also published a poll yesterday of 725 registered voters who watched the debate: It too showed a virtual tie, with Mr. Kerry leading Mr. Bush 49 to 47 per cent. Both surveys had a margin of error of four percentage points.

In the run-up to Friday's "town hall" debate in St. Louis, Mr. Kerry is expected to shift the focus of his campaign from foreign policy (which had been seen as a strength for Mr. Bush) to domestic issues, including concerns over employment, rising health-care costs and higher tuition costs.

Mr. Kerry seized on the Times report yesterday, saying it provided further evidence that Mr. Bush ignores the reality on the ground, whether in Iraq or on the economy, and twists the facts to support his administration's political interests.

The report not only raised "serious questions about whether the administration was open and honest" about Iraq but also might explain Bush's upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy, the Massachusetts senator said.

"All too often the administration also chooses to avoid the facts and the truth," Mr. Kerry said at a campaign stop in northeastern Ohio.Meanwhile, White House officials were doing damage control over the Times article, insisting they had not overstated Iraq's nuclear threat in the run-up to the war and repeating the argument that Mr. Bush was protecting U.S. security by invading Iraq.

On news shows yesterday, Mr. Bush's national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, said she had been aware of a debate within the U.S. intelligence community about whether the aluminum tubes were intended for nuclear weapons.

"I knew that there was a dispute. I actually didn't really know the nature of the dispute," Ms. Rice told ABC's This Week. "The intelligence community assessment as a whole was that these [tubes] were likely and certainly suitable for, and likely for, his nuclear weapons program."

She said the CIA director at the time, George Tenet, believed that the tubes were for centrifuge parts, critical for building nuclear weapons.

However, almost a year before the Bush administration warned the world about Iraq's nuclear ambitions in the lead-up to the war, the government's top nuclear scientists said they believed the tubes were likely intended for small artillery rockets, the Times reported, attributing the information to four officials at the Central Intelligence Agency and two senior administration officials, all of whom were unidentified.

With reports from AP and Reuters

Bush criticises Kerry's defense policy

Bush overreached on war

Bush perpetrates fraud; Kerry must expose it

Bush says Kerry would cede security to other countries.

CUYAHOGA FALLS, OHIO -- President Bush criticized Sen. John Kerry Saturday for suggesting that preemptive military action by the United States would have to pass a "global test," saying the "Kerry doctrine" would cede national security decisions to other countries.

Scrambling to regain the offensive two days after what was widely viewed as a less-than-stellar performance in his first debate with his Democratic challenger, Bush sought to cast as a sign of weakness Kerry's comments Thursday night that the United States needs credible reasons for taking preemptive action to head off threats.

"Senator Kerry's approach to foreign policy would give foreign governments veto power over our national security decisions," he said during an address in Columbus at the start of a day of campaigning in Ohio.

"I have a different view," Bush said. "When our country is in danger, the president's job is not to take an international poll. The president's job is to defend America. I'll continue to work every day with our friends and allies for the sake of freedom and peace. But our national security decisions will be made in the Oval Office, not in foreign capitals."

Kerry's campaign said the president was distorting what Kerry said during the debate.

"After putting in such an arrogant performance laden with scowls and smirks, George Bush is doing clean-up work and flailing out on the stump," said Phil Singer, a spokesman for Kerry. "It is astounding that he is making things up when he should be detailing a plan to stabilize the situation in Iraq."

During the debate, Kerry said he would "never give a veto to any country over our security" and he pledged to "hunt down and kill the terrorists wherever they are."

But he repeatedly emphasized the need for the United States to forge and lead international alliances, and he suggested that in undertaking any preemptive action the nation has to be able to make a strong case to the world for why it is doing so.

"No president, through all of American history, has ever ceded, and nor would I, the right to preempt in any way necessary to protect the United States of America," Kerry said during the debate. "But if and when you do it ... you've got to do it in a way that passes the test, that passes the global test where your countrymen, your people understand fully why you're doing what you're doing, and you can prove to the world that you did it for legitimate reasons."

Countercommercials

By Saturday afternoon, the Bush campaign had completed work on a new television commercial built around Kerry's use of the words "global test."

"A global test? So America will be forced to wait while threats gather?" the narrator says in the commercial, which will begin running on Monday.

The Kerry campaign immediately began slapping together a commercial striking back at Bush on the topic. "George Bush lost the debate," the script for the new Kerry commercial says. "Now he's lying about it."

In his appearances Saturday, Bush ran through a string of areas in which he said Kerry had been inconsistent or harmful to U.S. foreign policy, saying that the Democrat had continued "a pattern of confusing contradictions" about his position on Iraq.

Bush hit Kerry on foreign policy even as he spent most of the day on the campaign trail in Ohio talking about economic issues.

Bush said the economy is improving, pointing to the 1.7 million jobs that have been created in the last year and the drop in the unemployment rate to 5.4 percent from a peak of 6.3 percent in June 2003. He did not mention that the nation has 900,000 fewer nonfarm jobs than when he took office and that the unemployment rate is still well above the 4.2 percent rate of January 2001.

Bush, Kerry Both Claim Victory In 1st Debate

They are set to meet in another two debates before the poll on November 2.

Early reaction from TV voter panels suggests that Kerry had the better of the exchanges, but the debate did not immediately change voters' minds.

Millions watched the debate which took place at the University of Miami in Coral Gables, Florida. The Massachusetts senator's running mate, John Edwards, said he told Kerry after the debate: "I think people saw the next commander-in-chief." And he criticised Bush for failing to acknowledge problems in Iraq.

"You can't fix a problem if you're not willing to admit that mistakes have been made," he told ABC's Good Morning America. On the same programme, White House spokesman Dan Bartlett argued Bush's case. "I think he spoke from the heart, spoke with strength about the necessity for our country to fight the terrorists over there so we don't have to face them here at home," he said.

An ABC News poll found 45% of a sample of registered voters thought Kerry won, 36% chose Mr Bush and 17% who called it a tie. The poll had an error margin of 4.5 percentage points.

A CBS poll showed a clear win for John Kerry, but a third of the undecided voters said they were still on the fence.

As expected, Kerry made Iraq the focus of his challenge against the president, saying the war in Iraq had been a diversion that had no links with the 11 September 2001 attacks and was a "colossal error of judgement".

Bush said he was confident of poll victory because he had shown the American people he knew how to lead. And he rejected Kerry's accusation that invading Iraq had been the wrong priority, arguing that he had to deal with both Osama Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein.

From Florida, Bush was travelling to Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, which are both battleground states. Kerry is due to spend Friday in Florida - also expected to be key in the contest.

The men will take part in a second debate in Missouri, on October 8, in a town hall-style meeting where they will take questions from the audience. The final debate is set for October 13 in Arizona, and will focus on domestic issues.

62 M Watched Debate: Meanwhile more than 62 million US viewers tuned in to the first of three Presidential debates in this year’s election campaign, making it the most watched since 1992, according to Nielsen Media Research.

Bush and Kerry debated foreign policy and national security issues Thursday at a forum broadcast live on major US television networks and leading cable news channels.

Viewership surpassed the first debate four years ago between Bush and then-Vice President Al Gore by nearly 16 million, the ratings firm said.

The viewer figures underscore voters’ high level of interest in this year’s Presidential election.

Debates held ahead of the 1992 Presidential election were credited with building support for Bill Clinton in his ultimately successful challenge of incumbent President George Bush, the father of the current President.

A record 62.4 million people watched the initial Presidential debate in 1992, which featured maverick independent candidate Ross Perot as well as Clinton and Bush.

Snap polls said Kerry won the contest Thursday but experts warned it would take days to accurately assess the exchange’s impact on the hard-fought campaign.

They also agreed that the close-fought debate raised the stakes for the second Presidential face-off, set for October 8.

A third debate is scheduled for October 13, with voting taking place on November 2.

In 1992, the audience grew for the second and third debates, to 69.9 million and 66.9 million, respectively, according to Nielsen figures cited by the Commission on Presidential Debates, which produces and sponsors the candidates’ televised verbal duels.

Bush, Kerry slug it out over BPO

Bush, Kerry turn focus to domestic policies

Bush: 'Kerry Doctrine' will allow foreign vetoes

But Iraq colors all perceptions

Will the economy matter when voters make their choice between Sen. John Kerry and President Bush on Nov. 2?

"As many people say [the economy is] the No. 1 issue as Iraq or terrorism, but in terms of intensity and the thing that nags you, Kerry's been damaged by his stature gap and how people see him as a war president," said Jeffrey Berry, a Tufts University political science professor before Thursday night's debate.

Kerry "can't get to the economy until he convinces people that he's OK on foreign policy," he said.

In a few days, pollsters will have the first meaningful signs as to whether Kerry bridged that stature gap in the debate, which was devoted exclusively to foreign policy and homeland security issues.

Instant polls taken after the event were virtually unanimous in giving Kerry a win, but public opinion experts note that it takes a few days for impressions to solidify among the broader electorate. Upcoming surveys will show whether the debate performance helped Kerry close a consistent gap among voters in national polls.

Independent pollster Scott Rasmussen said that Iraq and economic issues, while seemingly separate, can't be easily divided.

"I do think a lot of people want to focus on the economy, it's closer to home," he said. "But we also know from tracking [polls] that people's perceptions of the economy are impacted by what's happened in Iraq."

That was illustrated in March and April. Despite breakout payrolls growth, RasmussenReports.com saw its daily indexes of investor and consumer confidence fall -- a slip Rasmussen attributed to news of the Abu Ghraib prison scandal, unrest in Fallujah and other woes in Iraq.

"I don't think you can entirely remove Iraq from the discussions of domestic issues in any way, shape or form," he said. "And I would suspect homeland security will slip in as a domestic issue in some way or another, too, in the (upcoming) debate."

Iraq remained the central issue on the campaign trail Friday. Bush, keying off some of Thursday night's exchanges with the Democratic challenger, told a crowd of supporters in Allentown, Pa.: "The use of troops to defend America must never be subject to a veto from countries like France."

Kerry, campaigning in Tampa, Fla., charged that Bush was mischaracterizing his criticisms.

"He says, 'We don't want to wilt or waver,"' in Iraq and the war on terrorism, Kerry said. "Well, Mr. President, nobody's talking about leaving, nobody's talking about wilting and wavering. We're talking about winning and getting the job done right."

But Kerry is slated to focus on the economy Saturday, in a speech in Orlando, Fla. Kerry and Bush debate again next Friday in a town-hall type debate in St. Louis. They'll debate economic and domestic policy issues on Oct. 13 in Arizona, their final match-up. Vice President Dick Cheney and Sen. John Edwards, Kerry's running mate, will debate Tuesday night in Cleveland.

Meanwhile, analysts note that a key piece of economic data -- the Labor Department's September employment report -- will be released next Friday. It's the last jobs report to be released before Election Day.

"Could this report play a role? If it's particularly weak, and I think there's a chance that will be the case, then obviously it could become an issue" in the domestic policy debate the following week, said economist Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa.

Meanwhile, many analysts contend the markets have largely factored in a Bush victory -- a market-friendly conclusion that Schwab Soundview Capital Markets analyst Greg Valliere said may be complacent.

"Bush did an acceptable job in the debate last night, but Sen. John Kerry helped himself a lot," Valliere wrote in a weekly summary Friday, adding that the Electoral College outcome continues to favor Bush by just a hair.

Market watchers have generally argued that a Bush victory would be positive for pharmaceutical, HMO, oil exploration and defense stocks.

Barry Ritholtz, chief market strategist at Maxim Group, said there may be a case for arguing Bush would be slightly more positive for equities and that Kerry, by virtue of his hawkish rhetoric on the deficit, would be more positive for bonds.

But Ritholtz downplayed the scope of differences between Bush and Kerry on economic policy, much less the ability of the market to predict or anticipate victory by one candidate or the other.

"I don't believe the market is as concerned about the election as most people think. I think that's very much missing the point," Ritholtz said. "What the market is concerned about is are we expanding the economy? Is GDP growth going to keep going? Is this economic expansion something we're going to enjoy beyond this year or has stimulus faded and now we're moving back toward an anemic, slow-growth period?"

Candidates blast each other on domestic issues, as Bush takes dip ...

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- President George W. Bush ridiculed Saturday what he called the "Kerry doctrine" as a dangerous outsourcing of America's security, seeking to poke a hole in Sen. John Kerry's debate performance with what advisers see as his rival's biggest miscue.

The first poll taken after the presidential debate showed Kerry running even with Bush. The Democrat had the support of 47 percent and Bush 45 percent in the Newsweek poll. Independent candidate Ralph Nader had the backing of 2 percent.

Bush was slightly up, 49-43, in the same poll in early September and up 11 points in the Newsweek poll taken right after the GOP convention. The poll of 1,013 registered voters was taken from late Thursday to early Saturday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

"When he laid out the Kerry doctrine, he said that America has to pass a global test before we can use American troops to defend ourselves," Bush said, drawing loud boos from a friendly crowd at a National Association of Home Builders meeting and later from campaign-assembled audiences in Mansfield and the Akron suburb of Cuyahoga Falls.

"When our country is in danger, it is not the president's job to take an international poll, the president's job is to defend America," Bush said.

Two days after a debate that focused on the Iraq war and the antiterror-battle, the attacks turned to domestic policy. Kerry criticized Bush's economic record, but also tried to get in a final word about their last face-off by declaring himself the winner and Bush a liar.

"George Bush lost the debate," an announcer says in a television ad Kerry's campaign unveiled Saturday. "Now he's lying about it."

In Kerry's first debate with Bush, he told moderator Jim Lehrer that he avoids saying that the president is lying to the American people.

"I've never, ever used the harshest word, as you did just then," Kerry said. "And I try not to, but I'll nevertheless tell you that I think he has not been candid with the American people."

Kerry spokesman David Wade said the Massachusetts senator's new ad will run at least in all the places where Bush airs his own new ad called "Global Test." The Bush ad is scheduled to go on the air Monday on national cable networks and in select local media markets.

That ad refers to Kerry's comment in the debate that a pre-emptive strike must pass "the global test where your countrymen, your people understand fully why you're doing what you're doing and you can prove to the world that you did it for legitimate reasons."

The stated theme of Bush's 27th visit to this battleground state was his economic record and plan to encourage an "ownership society."

Bush's agenda includes partial privatization of Social Security, tax-deductible personal accounts to cover health care expenses, and proposals to increase homeownership. Bush cast Kerry as a friend to big government who is obstructing such proposals that would provide Americans with "more freedom and more control over your own life."

"Instead, his agenda focuses on expanding the scope and power of government," Bush said in Columbus. "He's decided to put his faith in the wisdom of the government. I will always put my faith in the wisdom of the American people."

Kerry has presented himself as a business-friendly Democrat, and he often criticizes the Bush administration for the first job-loss record since the Depression. Kerry also argued Saturday that Bush cares most about the wealthy and well-connected, while portraying himself as the patron of working families who are struggling to achieve the American dream.

"I've got your back," Kerry told middle-class voters.

The renewed focus on bread-and-butter economic issues came exactly one month from the Nov. 2 election.

Bush narrowly won Ohio in 2000. The state has lost 237,400 jobs since he took office and has an unemployment rate of 6.3 percent. Recent polling shows a virtual tie between Bush and Kerry as they compete for its 20 electoral votes.

Candidates endorse a more caustic tone in campaign TV ads

President Bush yesterday released a tough, new campaign ad that accuses John Kerry of espousing a "Kerry Doctrine" in which he would "seek permission of foreign governments before protecting America." And the Democrat, after initially trying to ignore the barb, struck back with advertising that says Bush is "lying about it."

Citing newspaper reports about the prewar intelligence on weapons of mass destruction, Kerry further upped the ante by accusing Bush of rushing to war. "But here's something new about George Bush," the ad states, "newspapers report he withheld key intelligence information from the American public so he could overstate the threat Iraq posed. Bush rushed to war. We're paying the price."

For the first time in this political season, dueling television ads endorsed by the candidates themselves are setting a caustic tone in the campaign for the White House.

The speed with which the rhetoric changed since the relatively polite debate Thursday is telling. In fact, Kerry's senior adviser Michael McCurry and other top Kerry aides said most of yesterday that the Democrat would not respond to Bush's "Kerry Doctrine" accusation. That position changed late in the day.

Charles Jones, a political scientist and professor emeritus at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, said: "It strikes me as becoming increasingly personal." Jones noted the clear differences on the issue of dealing with U.S. allies, saying: "It is a legitimate debate, and it is too bad that it is becoming personalized."

The Kerry campaign distributed its ad last night and said it would air on cable television in the same locales as the Bush ad.

Candidates raring to go in crucial lap of race

Democratic challenger John Kerry plans to capitalise on the momentum from a strong debate performance by shifting the focus to President George W. Bush's economic record, while the US leader will revive his attack on his rival's foreign policy credentials, according to officials with both campaigns.

Advisers to both candidates predicted that the contest would tighten when the debates - which will now dwell on domestic policy - end on Oct 13, if not before.

Last Thursday's first debate produced a dramatic psychological shift in the race. Bush advisers were stunned by how negative the reviews were of the President's performance. His aides indicated they planned some retooling before Friday's debate.

Strategists from both parties said the candidates face new challenges now.

For Mr Bush, the immediate aim is to wipe away impressions of the first debate, in which he appeared annoyed and irritated by Mr Kerry's criticism.

Just as significant may be how well he explains why he believes his Iraq policies are working, when ground conditions suggest that the insurgency is stronger than ever.

Republicans said Mr Bush must avoid debating Mr Kerry on the details of micromanaging foreign policy and return to statements of principle with which most voters agree, from the threat posed by deposed leader Saddam Hussein to the need to stay in Iraq.

His team said it would also redouble efforts to portray his rival as a flip-flopper.

A Republican strategist added that Mr Bush had to keep reminding voters about Sept 11, 2001 and the impact of the attacks on the country.

For his part, Mr Kerry must continue to undo the damage Mr Bush has inflicted on him as someone who lacks core convictions or clear positions, especially on Iraq.

Democratic strategists said the debate marked a potential turning point that would take Mr Kerry off the defensive and shift the focus onto Mr Bush in an effort to capitalise on what polls show is continuing public disapproval of his policies in Iraq and at home.

Kerry advisers said they would use a big advertising blitz in 15 states to talk about Mr Bush's economic record.

Strategist Tad Devine said voters want to know their president can deal with Iraq and domestic needs simultaneously and Mr Kerry would offer those reassurances.

'This represents a very aggressive move to the domestic agenda,' Mr Devine said.

The candidates were in the country's two most important battlegrounds on Saturday: Mr Bush campaigned in Ohio while Mr Kerry rallied supporters in Florida.

Mr Bush hammered Mr Kerry as someone who would turn over decisions about the use of US military power to other countries.

Mr Kerry, for his part, said middle-class Americans could not afford another four years of a Bush administration.

Tomorrow, Vice-President Dick Cheney and Democratic vice-presidential nominee John Edwards will meet in Cleveland for a 90-minute debate - a session that some Republicans believe may have more relevance as a result of what happened in the first debate. -- Washington Post

Candidates trade shots on policies

During his 27th visit to a state deemed crucial to Republican presidential candidates, Bush in Ohio chided Kerry for being overly concerned about seeking international approval before the United States acts militarily. He referred to it derisively as the "Kerry doctrine."

"When he laid out the Kerry doctrine, he said that America has to pass a global test before we can use American troops to defend ourselves," Bush said. "When our country is in danger, it is not the president's job to take an international poll, the president's job is to defend America."

During the first presidential debate Thursday night, Kerry embraced Bush's own doctrine of pre-emptive military strikes to protect the country. However, Kerry also declared that the action must pass "the global test where your countrymen, your people understand fully why you're doing what you're doing, and you can prove to the world that you did it for legitimate reasons."

Bush has been criticized for failing to develop the breadth and depth of international support for the war in Iraq that his father, the first President Bush, built before driving Saddam Hussein's forces from Kuwait in 1991. Kerry calls it a major flaw in the younger Bush's war policy that is coming back to haunt the administration as it battles a difficult Iraqi insurgency.

Candidates turn their attention to home front

Candidates' war rooms reassess battle plans

Bush, campaigning in Ohio, opened a two-front attack against ‘‘the Kerry doctrine’’ that he said would purportedly give foreign leaders ‘‘veto power’’ over US troops. Bush also cut a tough new commercial charging that Kerry would cede US security to other nations.

In the war rooms of the two campaigns, meanwhile, Kerry and Bush advisers began reassessing their strategies for winning 270 electoral votes on Nov. 2 in light of difficulties that both sides have had locking up key states by their target of early October.

Democrats had hoped to put away Iowa and Pennsylvania, and Republicans wanted solid leads in Ohio and Florida polls, but advisers in each camp say they are disappointed at where they stand today.

With a month left before Election Day, Kerry advisers this weekend are commissioning new polls, surveying governors and state party leaders, and launching two new commercials on the economy and energy policy in about 20 battleground states.

Those include Missouri, Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Colorado — states where only a week ago Kerry was pulling ads or scaling back.

The Bush camp also cut the new commercial as part of a large media buy, assailing Kerry’s argument at the Thursday debate that preemptive US military strikes should be conducted in a manner that ‘‘passes the global test’’ so that ‘‘you can prove to the world that you did it for legitimate reasons.’’

As his aides were preparing the ad, Bush attacked Kerry over the remark for a second day, making clear he wants to use that line as a brake on Kerry’s momentum.

‘‘He said that America has to pass a global test before we can use American troops to defend ourselves,’’ Bush said in Columbus, Ohio, drawing boos from attendees of the National Association of Home Builders’ board of directors meeting.

‘‘The president’s job is to defend America. I work every day with our friends and allies for the sake of freedom and peace, but our national security decisions must be made in the Oval Office, not foreign capitals.’’

Richard Holbrooke, a former United Nations ambassador and a Kerry adviser, said in a conference call with reporters that Bush ‘‘completely misconstrued and misrepresented’’ Kerry’s comments, given that Kerry said at the debate that he would never cede ‘‘the right to preempt in any way.’’

Kerry only briefly touched on Iraq during a $6 million campaign fund-raiser in Washington last night. The Democrat said the United States had to succeed in Iraq for the safety of the region and the world, but said Bush had failed in the diplomacy to recruit more partners to the effort.   Continued...

David Brooks: Bush vs. Kerry: a clash of minds

Debate leads to shifts in strategy

Yesterday found the candidates in the nation's two most important battlegrounds, with Bush campaigning in Ohio and Kerry rallying supporters in Florida. Bush hammered Kerry as someone who would turn over decisions about the use of U.S. military power to other countries, and Kerry said middle-class Americans cannot afford another four years of a Bush administration.

Debate unable to sway focus group

But if Kerry's biggest fans could have been at Moe's restaurant with the Globe's 10-voter focus group Friday night, they might have left feeling a bit deflated. All of those voters believed Bush had done badly Thursday. Most of them believed Kerry had gotten the better of the president in the debate.

And yet, not one of their minds was changed by it.

"I watched the whole thing, but I didn't get very much from it," said Joyce George, a 61-year-old undecided voter who is leaning toward Bush. "It was just kind of repeating what they've been saying all along."

Before the debate, three in the group were fervent Bush supporters, and one was a reluctant but firm Kerry supporter. Six were undecided, with three of those leaning toward Bush, two leaning toward Kerry, and one not leaning at all. And that was exactly where they all stood after the debate as well.

Nationally, a Rasmussen Reports survey of 1,000 likely voters taken Friday night indicated 6 percent of voters said the debate had changed their minds about the candidates. But Kerry took the lead, 47 percent to 45 percent, in a new Newsweek poll, with Independent candidate Ralph Nader getting 2 percent. Bush led Kerry, 49 percent to 43 percent, in the same poll in early September.

The 10 voters in the Ohio group, whom the Globe has been following since June, were gathered with help from the Center for Policy Studies at the University of Akron. Bush and Kerry are locked in a tight battle in this crucial state, and both campaigns are bombarding voters in Ohio with television spots, mailings, and phone calls. The candidates come to the Buckeye State often: Bush appeared yesterday at a rally in Cuyahoga Falls, just a couple of minutes from Moe's. Kerry is scheduled to make appearances in a suburb of Youngstown and in Cleveland today.

Judith Cohodas, who voted for Gore in 2000 but is undecided this year, said she was hoping to get "some forward thinking about where the country is going," from either Bush or Kerry. She said she thinks Bush is a "decent, honorable person," but she was disappointed in him Thursday. His grimaces bothered her, and he did not counter Kerry's criticisms with good arguments, she said.

"If Bush is this tired in a debate, how is he when he is negotiating with foreign countries?," said Cohodas, 60, who is leaning toward Kerry. "Kerry can seem starchy, but he came across softer, a little bit more human, and I didn't expect him to be as learned about the topics as he was."   Continued...

Democrat planted seed of doubt in American minds. Now the race for ...

Democrats fight back as Bush attacks Kerry's defence policy

The Bush campaign released a television advertisement saying: 'We must seek permission from foreign governments before protecting America. A global test? So America will be forced to wait while threats gather?'

Democrats branded that claim an outright lie. 'George Bush has lost the debate. Now he's lying about it,' said their advertisement, which the Kerry campaign plans to run wherever the Bush camp airs spots on the 'Kerry doctrine' of appeasing allies. -- AFP

Divided against itself

Since 1964, every incumbent with approval ratings below 50% in the spring of the year when they are running for re-election, which would include Bush, has lost. But then every incumbent who has had an approval rating above 50% at this stage, which would include Bush, has won. The truth is that nobody can predict the outcome of the presidential election. The polls are too volatile, the margins too close and the context in which they are being conducted too precarious. Anything from a large mortar attack in Iraq that kills several US soldiers (Iraqi casualties appear to have little impact on US public opinion) to a plant closure in Ohio could tip the balance either way.

Kerry has started to bounce back, helped in part by a strong debate performance. But for now, Bush is the narrow favourite. That forces the rest of us to wrestle with the prospect of four more years of the most rightwing administration most can remember. What should the world make of America and Americans if Bush wins?

In 2000, such a prospect was unpleasant but far less alarming. If anything, the world was more concerned by his unilateral withdrawal from the global arena (reneging on treaties like Kyoto) than his unilateral intervention into it. Moreover, the manner in which Bush assumed power - selected by judges rather than elected by people - denied him absolute legitimacy in the world's eyes and helped us differentiate him from the people he claimed to represent.

EDITORIAL:US presidential debate

The live showcase proves democracy's strengths.

The television debates have begun between U.S. President George W. Bush, who is seeking a second term, and Democratic rival Senator John Kerry as they enter the final laps of the U.S. presidential election race.

The main subject of the first debate was diplomatic and security policies-an area considered Bush's specialty.

``Saddam Hussein now sits in a prison cell,'' Bush said. ``America and the world are safer for it.'' He went on to insist that the war against Iraq was justified.

Kerry countered by saying, ``We also have to be smart. And smart means not diverting your attention from the real war on terror in Afghanistan against Osama bin Laden and taking it off to Iraq.

``This president has made, I regret to say, a colossal error of judgment.''

Not surprisingly, the two clashed over Iraq issues and terrorism. A poll taken immediately after the debate showed that more viewers thought Kerry had won the debate.

Perceived victory or defeat in the forum does not necessarily translate into votes. Yet the fact that more people saw Kerry as the winner must be hurting Bush. Considering the deteriorating situation in Iraq, Bush cannot be so confident about his re-election.

Roughly 60 million viewers across the United States tuned into the debate. The public looks not only at who dominates the discussion, but also considers manner of speech, facial expression and body language when deciding which candidate's personality and characteristics are better suited to leading the country.

Going back four years to the last televised debates, viewers perceived Democratic candidate Al Gore as being arrogant after he sighed disrespectfully every time Bush spoke.

In the latest debate, Kerry consistently displayed fortitude while Bush appeared worried at several moments. Kerry appeared to score points for his presidential dignity.

How Bush and Kerry would work with allies is of great concern to the rest of the world. Kerry said he would rebuild relations with allies in regard to Iraq, and criticized Bush's unilateralism. Bush countered that if Kerry criticized the war in Iraq, saying it was wrong, how could he call upon allied nations to serve?

Bush doesn't seem to understand that his denial that he has made mistakes in the war is what prevents France, Germany and other nations from taking part in the reconstruction of Iraq.

The two candidates also clearly disagreed over the issue of North Korea's nuclear development. While Kerry acknowledged the need for bilateral talks between the United States and North Korea, Bush considers the current six-way talks to be adequate.

As for the ongoing development of small nuclear weapons under the Bush administration, Kerry vowed to shut the program down and said it went against the ideals of containing nuclear proliferation.

While the U.S. presidential election campaign has numerous questionable factors including massive spending, television commercials slandering the opponents and highly competitive campaigns in potential swing states, the tradition of airing live debates for 90 minutes in prime time has been preserved.

In the next debate, the candidates will answer questions from people in the audience. We look forward to watching the fundamental strengths of American democracy in action.

--The Asahi Shimbun, Oct. 2(IHT/Asahi: October 4,2004)(10/04)

Focus shifting to the home front

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- With a barrage of new advertisements and speeches, Sen. John Kerry's aides are moving to shift the battle with President Bush to what they said was stronger ground -- domestic policy -- as the two men head into a second debate that is expected to focus on the economy, job creation and health care.

Bush's aides said they would continue to try to center the presidential campaign on foreign policy and national security, although even Republicans said Kerry had gained ground in Thursday's first debate on foreign policy. But the aides said they would gladly engage Kerry on domestic issues as well. The president's weekly radio address on Saturday was devoted to tax cuts, and Bush will fly to Iowa on Monday to sign into law the latest round of cuts.

Kerry's campaign changed its menu of television advertisements this weekend, replacing spots attacking Bush on Iraq and national security with ones in which Kerry talks about health care and job creation, while attacking Bush as a tool of "special interests."

Kerry delivered a speech on domestic issues in Orlando, Fla., on Saturday morning that aides said was intended to usher in this new phase of his campaign, denouncing Bush as "the first president to lose jobs in our country in 72 years." Kerry will hold a town meeting today in Ohio on the outsourcing of jobs and is planning speeches on health care early in the week.

"We know that there are a lot of people out there who are more worried about their jobs and paying their health care bills than worrying about what's going on on the other side of the world," said Joe Lockhart, a senior Kerry adviser.

After weeks of growing increasingly confident about victory, some Republicans said in interviews that they were concerned that Kerry's showing at the debate -- combined with images on television of Bush fidgeting and frowning as his opponent criticized him -- might have tilted the landscape and that Bush might once again have a fight on his hands. But Bush's senior advisors argued that Kerry's debate would not be enough to overcome what they described as voter concerns about him and said they were unconcerned about his latest assault.

The shift in emphasis by Kerry comes as he and Bush head for a second debate, on Friday in St. Louis, in which the candidates will be questioned by voters and which is expected to include a heavy focus on domestic issues. That morning, the government will issue the last set of unemployment figures before the election. And on Tuesday in Cleveland, the two vice presidential candidates will debate, and aides to Sen. John Edwards, the Democrat, said he hoped to keep the focus on domestic issues.

Tug of war

This is hardly the first time that Kerry's advisers have sought to gain the advantage in what has been a long tug-of-war with the White House over whether the campaign should be fought over domestic issues or national security. Kerry's advisers acknowledged that he had been largely unsuccessful at this effort for much of the year, in no small part because of the spiral of violence in Baghdad.

And some Democrats questioned whether it made sense for Kerry to try to turn the subject away from Iraq at a time that continuing violence there was raising doubts among some voters about Bush's credentials to manage foreign policy crises.

But Kerry's aides and congressional Democrats argued that Thursday's presidential debate -- confined to foreign policy issues at the insistence of Bush's aides -- gave Kerry credibility on this subject, allowing him to pivot to the critique of Bush on the home front.

Bush's senior aides said that no matter what Kerry did, the president would continue to challenge his foreign policy fortitude, seizing in particular on Kerry's suggestion in the debate that he might not engage in a pre-emptive war without putting it to a "global test."

Bush's senior adviser, Karl Rove, described the remark as "a blunder," adding: "It was an insight into his foreign policy soul."

The positioning came as both sides sought to measure the lasting effects, if any, of a debate in which Kerry offered what even Republicans described as a crisp and articulate case against the president. With a handful of exceptions, there appeared to be a consensus among both parties that Kerry's performance had at the least jimmied open a window that Democrats feared had been closing on Kerry.

At the same time, a number of Republicans said that they were worried by what they called a lackluster debate performance by Bush.

Heartened

Aides to both campaigns said they were waiting over the weekend to see how the perception of the debate settled in with the public, as well as the first full-fledged opinion polls. Instant polls done that evening, of questionable value, found that most viewers said that Kerry had won the debate, but there was no immediate sign that he had chipped into what most polls show as a small lead by Bush, a finding that heartened some Republicans.

"There are two clear story lines," said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster. "One is that Kerry did very well in the debate. The more important story line is that it didn't affect anyone's opinion."

But Sen. Richard Durbin, D-Ill., said that Bush had failed to do what he was seeking to do at the debate and that he was now vulnerable in a way he had not been before.

"This was going to be their knockout punch, their issue, the chance to make their strongest case with the people, and it didn't happen," Durbin said, adding: "I think there will be a momentum shift now. Come next Friday night, President Bush has to play on Senator Kerry's field, domestic issues."

And even some Republicans said that Kerry had at the least ended any hope Bush had of a quick and easy victory.

"I don't think anything changed, but I think Kerry kept himself in the race," said Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., adding, "I think the American people are making a distinction, and they accept that Kerry is more skillful on his feet, but they still trust the president more."

Hot stops top Bush's week

Kerry 1, Bush 0, no doubt about it

Additional articles by Antonia Zerbisias